The world of cryptocurrency is abuzz as XRP (XRP) faces a turbulent ride following a significant decline exceeding 40% from its peak of approximately .40 in January. Recent on-chain data indicates that this downward trend may continue in the upcoming weeks, raising concerns among investors and analysts alike.
One key metric under scrutiny is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) from Glassnode, which assesses the unrealized gains or losses of XRP holders. Historically, this data has proven to be a reliable indicator of potential market reversals. Past patterns suggest that when NUPL reaches a peak during periods of exuberance, it may foreshadow sharp price drops. For instance, in 2018, after XRP surged above .00 amid extreme optimism, it plummeted by 90% into the depths of market despair. A similar trajectory unfolded in 2021, when XRP’s price fell 75% after hitting .96, transitioning from a state of euphoria to one dominated by fear.
“XRP’s NUPL has once again entered the ‘denial’ zone, correlating with its current price around .50 following a significant rally.”
Despite these troubling signs, some analysts suggest that XRP’s recent consolidation between .80 and .40 could lead to a breakout, fueled by optimism stemming from political developments, including a pro-crypto presidential candidate. Speculation surrounding Ripple’s ongoing legal battles and the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF further adds to the mix of fluctuating sentiments in the market.
However, while some foresee a possible price jump of up to 450%, others warn of a bearish fractal appearing in the charts, reminiscent of patterns observed in 2021. This has led to worries that XRP may again experience significant downturns if these trends continue. If the price descends past key support levels, such as the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), historical data may suggest even steeper declines could follow.
As the cryptocurrency market navigates these complexities, XRP’s future remains uncertain. Investors are urged to keep a close watch on the evolving landscape, with many weighing their options in these fluctuating conditions.
XRP Market Update: Key Insights and Potential Risks
The recent trends surrounding XRP (XRP) have raised concerns about a potential downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Below are the key points impacting XRP’s trajectory and what they mean for investors:
- Significant Losses Since January
- XRP has plummeted over 40% from its peak near .40 in January.
- Current price trends suggest further instability in the coming weeks.
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Indicator
- NUPL data indicates XRP might be in a “denial” phase, historically linked to deeper market corrections.
- Past trends show a correlation between high NUPL and major price collapses, including declines of 90% in previous cycles.
- Historical Patterns of Market Sentiment
- The token’s history of rapid rises followed by sharp declines has been observed in 2018 and 2021, indicating potential for similar behavior in 2025.
- Current sentiment is reportedly shifting from euphoria to fear, often a precursor to significant downturns.
- Technical Analysis and Price Levels
- XRP currently trades between .80 and .40, with indications of potential consolidation which could lead to breakout opportunities.
- Technical fractals reveal bearish patterns, similar to past market activities, suggesting looming risks and possible corrections down to the 50-week EMA at around .58.
- Potential for Future Growth or Decline
- Analysts project a possible 450% price increase based on upcoming market catalysts, including political changes and potential favorable outcomes in legal scenarios.
- Conversely, should the price dip below support levels, a decline of around 60% to [openai_gpt model=”gpt-4o-mini” prompt=”Based on the article content, generate a list of key points in an HTML format using Bold, UL/OL. Focus solely on the most important aspects, and describe how they might be related or impact the readers life if at all. Begin with a title using
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tags. DO NOT include a ‘Conclusion’ section! Here is the topic description: ‘XRP (XRP) has lost more than 40% since hitting a multi-year high near $3.40 in January, and onchain data suggests the downtrend could deepen in the weeks ahead.“Denial” preceding past 75-90% XRP crashes is backXRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode suggests the token may be heading for another extended downturn. The metric, which gauges the aggregate unrealized gains or losses of XRP holders, has historically served as a reliable barometer of potential trend reversals. In past market cycles, NUPL has peaked in the so-called “euphoria” zone just before major price tops. In 2018, XRP soared above $3.00 as NUPL signaled extreme optimism, only to collapse 90% to below $0.30 as sentiment deteriorated through “denial” and into “capitulation.” XRP NUPL historical performance chart. Source: GlassnodeA similar pattern played out in 2021 when XRP hit $1.96 before sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a sharp shift from euphoria to fear.As of March 2025, XRP’s NUPL has once again entered the “denial” zone, with the price trading around $2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern holds, XRP could face further downsides akin to the bear markets in 2018 and 2021.XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewXRP now faces similar risks, trading sideways between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in just two months.The rally accelerated after pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election, while speculation grew around Ripple’s potential victory in its SEC lawsuit and the possible approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025.Related: SEC dropping XRP case was ‘priced in’ since Trump’s election: AnalystsAs a result of these supportive fundamentals, some traders said XRP’s ongoing consolidation may eventually lead to a breakout. That includes market analyst Stellar Babe, who anticipates XRP’s price to gain 450%. Technical fractal suggests XRP is topping out XRP’s weekly chart suggests a bearish fractal from 2021 may be unfolding again.In both 2021 and 2025, the XRP price formed a local top while the RSI printed a lower high, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum.XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewBack in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke below the 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA) supports.In 2025, XRP has again shown a similar RSI divergence, followed by a 40%-plus decline from its recent highs. It now risks an extended decline toward the 50-week EMA at around $1.58, down about 21.6% from the current price levels by June. If the correction deepens and breaks below the 50-week EMA support, history suggests XRP could slide further toward the 200-week EMA around $0.87, or about 60% from the current price levels.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.'”].87 may occur.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
XRP’s Market Position: A Potential Bearish Trend Ahead
The cryptocurrency market is perpetually volatile, and XRP, in particular, is currently under the microscope as it experiences significant price fluctuations. With a staggering loss of over 40% following its peak near .40 earlier in the year, the prevailing sentiment among analysts leans toward caution. This scenario draws attention to notable similarities with past market cycles, specifically the extreme downturns that followed euphoric highs.
Comparative Analysis of Market Trends
Recent on-chain metrics, particularly the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode, indicate that XRP may be on the brink of another significant decline. Historical patterns have shown that when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “denial” stage, as it has now, it often precedes sharp corrections. Analysts recall the 2018 and 2021 scenarios, where XRP prices significantly fell after entering similar euphoric states, resulting in devastating drops of up to 90% and 75% respectively. This repetitive behavior suggests a concerning potential for further decline.
In contrast, other cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, have also shown resilient recovery patterns despite their own price crashes. In comparison, XRP’s current state may raise red flags for both traders and long-term investors, who could find themselves facing tough choices. Those invested in XRP during its previous highs may be holding onto their assets in hopes of a reversal, but the bearish fractal patterns echoing the past could complicate their outlook.
Who Stands to Benefit or Suffer?
The looming possibility of a bear market could significantly create challenges for XRP enthusiasts and holders, particularly those who are late to the rally. As noted, if price corrections deepen and XRP breaches key support levels like the 50-week and 200-week EMAs, it could lead to heightened fear and panic selling. Conversely, savvy traders who recognize these bearish indicators may seize the opportunity to short XRP or reinvest elsewhere, potentially capitalizing on the expected downturn.
Moreover, market sentiment could be increasingly influenced by external factors, such as the U.S. regulatory landscape or news around Ripple’s ongoing litigation with the SEC. Pro-crypto political shifts, like Donald Trump’s victory, initially seemed to rally XRP, but any subsequent adverse developments could severely impact its trajectory. Hence, the stakes are high for both sides of the investment spectrum in this fluctuating market ecosystem.
